Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Indy Eleven vs Toronto II — USL Championship 2026

Indy Eleven
Indy Eleven
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Toronto II
Toronto II
8/22/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 41Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, Indiana)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Indy Eleven55%
×Draw22%
Toronto II23%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Indy Eleven
2.02
Toronto II
1.25

Indy Eleven creates 62% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 18 away

creates per match

Indy Eleven
1.48
Toronto II
1.39

allows per match

Indy Eleven
1.11
Toronto II
2.56

finishing

Indy Eleven+0.00on par
Toronto II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Indy Eleven ↓

Toronto II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Indy Eleven or draw
77%
Indy Eleven or Toronto II
78%
Draw or Toronto II
45%

Winning margin

Indy Eleven wins by 2+
32%
Toronto II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Indy Eleven 1+ goals
87%
Indy Eleven 2+ goals
60%
Indy Eleven 3+ goals
33%
Toronto II 1+ goals
71%
Toronto II 2+ goals
36%
Toronto II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Indy Eleven (draw refunded)
70%
Toronto II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Indy Eleven at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.11 · 132 matches

Toronto II away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Indy Eleven attack 1.48 + Toronto II defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.02

Toronto II attack 1.39 + Indy Eleven defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Indy Eleven scores more
55%
level
22%
Toronto II scores more
23%

Indy Eleven at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Indy Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Indy Eleven 3–2 Toronto II

Indy Eleven beat Toronto II 3-2 in USL Championship on August 22, 2018.

The match was played at Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, Indiana).