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Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies — USL Championship 2026

Indy Eleven
Indy Eleven
Preview
23:00
Tampa Bay Rowdies
Tampa Bay Rowdies
10/10/2026USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Group StageMichael A. Carroll Stadium
Big match
39%
Indy Eleven
model favours
39%26%34%

65% of Indy Eleven’s goals come after the 75th minute

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Indy Eleven39%
×Draw26%
Tampa Bay Rowdies34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Indy Eleven
1.35
Tampa Bay Rowdies
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 134 home / 136 away

creates per match

Indy Eleven
1.49
Tampa Bay Rowdies
1.35

allows per match

Indy Eleven
1.12
Tampa Bay Rowdies
1.21

finishing

Indy Eleven+0.00on par
Tampa Bay Rowdies+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Indy Eleven ↓

Tampa Bay Rowdies →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Indy Eleven or draw
66%
Indy Eleven or Tampa Bay Rowdies
74%
Draw or Tampa Bay Rowdies
61%

Winning margin

Indy Eleven wins by 2+
18%
Tampa Bay Rowdies wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Indy Eleven 1+ goals
74%
Indy Eleven 2+ goals
39%
Indy Eleven 3+ goals
15%
Tampa Bay Rowdies 1+ goals
71%
Tampa Bay Rowdies 2+ goals
35%
Tampa Bay Rowdies 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Indy Eleven (draw refunded)
53%
Tampa Bay Rowdies (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Indy Eleven at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.12 · 134 matches

Tampa Bay Rowdies away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.21 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Indy Eleven attack 1.49 + Tampa Bay Rowdies defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.35

Tampa Bay Rowdies attack 1.35 + Indy Eleven defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Indy Eleven scores more
39%
level
26%
Tampa Bay Rowdies scores more
34%

Indy Eleven at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Indy Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Indy Eleven score first in only 28% of matches
  • Both teams score in 82% of Tampa Bay Rowdies’s matches
  • Tampa Bay Rowdies have won 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • Indy Eleven win 70% of their home games

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Eleven
LWDLW
Rowdies
WLWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Indy Eleven host Tampa Bay Rowdies

October 10, 2026: Indy Eleven take on Tampa Bay Rowdies in USL Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Indy Eleven host Tampa Bay Rowdies at Michael A. Carroll Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.