Indy Eleven 2–2 San Diego Loyal: Result & Stats

Indy Eleven

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

San Diego Loyal

7/1/2023

USL Championship · Round 20Michael A. Carroll Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Indy Eleven41%

×Draw25%

San Diego Loyal34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Indy ElevenExpected goals in this matchSan Diego Loyal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.33

Indy Eleven

1.48

San Diego Loyal

1.33

Indy Eleven creates 11% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 59 away

1.49

creates per match

1.54

1.12

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Indy Eleven

1.49

San Diego Loyal

1.54

allows per match

Indy Eleven

1.12

San Diego Loyal

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Indy Eleven+0.00on par

San Diego Loyal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Indy Eleven ↓

San Diego Loyal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Indy Eleven or draw

66%

Indy Eleven or San Diego Loyal

75%

Draw or San Diego Loyal

59%

Winning margin

Indy Eleven wins by 2+

20%

San Diego Loyal wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Indy Eleven 1+ goals

77%

Indy Eleven 2+ goals

43%

Indy Eleven 3+ goals

19%

San Diego Loyal 1+ goals

74%

San Diego Loyal 2+ goals

38%

San Diego Loyal 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Indy Eleven (draw refunded)

55%

San Diego Loyal (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Indy Eleven at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.12 · 135 matches

San Diego Loyal away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.46 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Indy Eleven attack 1.49 + San Diego Loyal defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.48

San Diego Loyal attack 1.54 + Indy Eleven defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Indy Eleven scores more

41%

level

25%

San Diego Loyal scores more

34%

Indy Eleven at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Indy Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff