Indy Eleven vs Rio Grande Valley — USL Championship 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 93+ matches
Indy Eleven46%
Rio Grande Valley29%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Indy Eleven creates 32% more chances
Season form · 135 home / 93 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over52
- Under48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Indy Eleven ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Indy Eleven at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.12 · 135 matches
Rio Grande Valley away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.66 · 93 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Indy Eleven attack 1.49 + Rio Grande Valley defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.57
Rio Grande Valley attack 1.25 + Indy Eleven defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.19
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 46%?"
Indy Eleven at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 46% does not mean "Indy Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
NashvilleIndy Eleven
Louisville City
Tampa Bay Rowdies
New York RB II
North Carolina
Ottawa Fury
Charleston Battery
Birmingham Legion
Saint Louis
Loudoun United
Charlotte Independence
Atlanta United II
Memphis 901
Bethlehem Steel
Hartford Athletic
Swope Park Rangers
Phoenix Rising
Reno 1868
Fresno FC
Real Monarchs
Orange County SC
El Paso Locomotive
Sacramento Republic
Austin Bold
LA Galaxy II
New Mexico United
San AntonioRio Grande Valley
Las Vegas Lights
Portland Timbers II
OKC Energy
Tulsa Roughnecks
Tacoma Defiance
Colorado SpringsIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Indy Eleven host Rio Grande Valley on Sunday, 24 September 2023 at 21:00. The match is part of the USL Championship 2018/2019 season.
Indy Eleven 0 – 1 Rio Grande Valley
Rio Grande Valley beat Indy Eleven 1-0 in USL Championship on September 24, 2023.
Goals: F. López (18').
The match was played at Michael A. Carroll Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana.