Indy Eleven 2–0 Real Monarchs: Result & Stats

Indy Eleven

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Real Monarchs

M. Arteaga 45+4' (pen), 26'

8/28/2021

USL Championship · Round 30Michael A. Carroll Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Indy Eleven50%

×Draw24%

Real Monarchs26%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Indy ElevenExpected goals in this matchReal Monarchs

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.12

Indy Eleven

1.66

Real Monarchs

1.12

Indy Eleven creates 48% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 57 away

1.49

creates per match

1.11

1.12

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Indy Eleven

1.49

Real Monarchs

1.11

allows per match

Indy Eleven

1.12

Real Monarchs

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Indy Eleven+0.00on par

Real Monarchs+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Indy Eleven ↓

Real Monarchs →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Indy Eleven or draw

74%

Indy Eleven or Real Monarchs

76%

Draw or Real Monarchs

50%

Winning margin

Indy Eleven wins by 2+

27%

Real Monarchs wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Indy Eleven 1+ goals

81%

Indy Eleven 2+ goals

49%

Indy Eleven 3+ goals

23%

Real Monarchs 1+ goals

67%

Real Monarchs 2+ goals

31%

Real Monarchs 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Indy Eleven (draw refunded)

66%

Real Monarchs (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Indy Eleven at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.12 · 133 matches

Real Monarchs away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.82 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Indy Eleven attack 1.49 + Real Monarchs defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.66

Real Monarchs attack 1.11 + Indy Eleven defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Indy Eleven scores more

50%

level

24%

Real Monarchs scores more

26%

Indy Eleven at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Indy Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

M. Arteaga↳ N. Moon

44'

D. Flores

45'

J. Gutjahr

45+4'

M. ArteagaPenalty

46'

S. Powder← A. Briggs

46'

I. Bance← J. Moberg

70'

R. Buckmaster← N. Moon

70'

Ayoze← P. Seagrist

75'

P. Vassell← N. Law

75'

A. Sissoko← J. Gutjahr

79'

79'

84'

86'

90+5'

Indy

Real

98

Kelly

45

Adams

40

▼

87

27

52

61

19

54

23

42

▼

1

3

15

5

2

▼

Seagrist

27

▼

Law

28

Koffie

6

▼

Gutjahr

29

⚽2

Arteaga

10

▼

Wild

17

A

▼

Moon

Manager: M. Rennie

70'▲R. Buckmaster←▼N. Moon

70'▲Ayoze←▼P. Seagrist

75'▲P. Vassell←▼N. Law

75'▲A. Sissoko←▼J. Gutjahr

86'▲C. Haworth←▼G. Wild

Indy Eleven substitutes

19Buckmaster7Ayoze98Vassell85Sissoko9Haworth20Ouimette26Edwards

Manager: J. Olave

46'▲S. Powder←▼A. Briggs

46'▲I. Bance←▼J. Moberg

Real Monarchs substitutes

96Powder41Bance83Nydegger58Sobowale84Martinez65Benitez55Slayton