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Indy Eleven vs Ottawa Fury — USL Championship 2018

Indy Eleven
Indy Eleven
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ottawa Fury
Ottawa Fury
7/4/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 28Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, Indiana)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Indy Eleven48%
×Draw25%
Ottawa Fury27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Indy Eleven
1.57
Ottawa Fury
1.12

Indy Eleven creates 40% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 34 away

creates per match

Indy Eleven
1.49
Ottawa Fury
1.12

allows per match

Indy Eleven
1.12
Ottawa Fury
1.65

finishing

Indy Eleven+0.00on par
Ottawa Fury+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Indy Eleven ↓

Ottawa Fury →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Indy Eleven or draw
73%
Indy Eleven or Ottawa Fury
75%
Draw or Ottawa Fury
52%

Winning margin

Indy Eleven wins by 2+
24%
Ottawa Fury wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Indy Eleven 1+ goals
79%
Indy Eleven 2+ goals
46%
Indy Eleven 3+ goals
21%
Ottawa Fury 1+ goals
67%
Ottawa Fury 2+ goals
31%
Ottawa Fury 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Indy Eleven (draw refunded)
64%
Ottawa Fury (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Indy Eleven at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.12 · 135 matches

Ottawa Fury away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.65 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Indy Eleven attack 1.49 + Ottawa Fury defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.57

Ottawa Fury attack 1.12 + Indy Eleven defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Indy Eleven scores more
48%
level
25%
Ottawa Fury scores more
27%

Indy Eleven at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Indy Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Indy Eleven 0–1 Ottawa Fury

Ottawa Fury beat Indy Eleven 1-0 in USL Championship on July 4, 2018.

The match was played at Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, Indiana).