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Indy Eleven vs Orange County SC — USL Championship 2026

Indy Eleven
Indy Eleven
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Orange County SC
Orange County SC
6/22/2024USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 18Michael A. Carroll Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Indy Eleven44%
×Draw25%
Orange County SC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Indy Eleven
1.51
Orange County SC
1.23

Indy Eleven creates 23% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 137 away

creates per match

Indy Eleven
1.49
Orange County SC
1.34

allows per match

Indy Eleven
1.12
Orange County SC
1.53

finishing

Indy Eleven+0.00on par
Orange County SC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Indy Eleven ↓

Orange County SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Indy Eleven or draw
69%
Indy Eleven or Orange County SC
75%
Draw or Orange County SC
56%

Winning margin

Indy Eleven wins by 2+
22%
Orange County SC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Indy Eleven 1+ goals
78%
Indy Eleven 2+ goals
44%
Indy Eleven 3+ goals
19%
Orange County SC 1+ goals
71%
Orange County SC 2+ goals
35%
Orange County SC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Indy Eleven (draw refunded)
59%
Orange County SC (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Indy Eleven at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.12 · 134 matches

Orange County SC away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.53 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Indy Eleven attack 1.49 + Orange County SC defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.51

Orange County SC attack 1.34 + Indy Eleven defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Indy Eleven scores more
44%
level
25%
Orange County SC scores more
31%

Indy Eleven at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Indy Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Indy Eleven 0–1 Orange County SC

Orange County SC beat Indy Eleven 1-0 in USL Championship on June 22, 2024.

The match was played at Michael A. Carroll Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana.