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Indy Eleven vs Nashville — USL Championship 2018

Indy Eleven
Indy Eleven
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nashville
Nashville
5/25/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 21Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, Indiana)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Indy Eleven36%
×Draw28%
Nashville36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Indy Eleven
1.21
Nashville
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 135 home / 34 away

creates per match

Indy Eleven
1.49
Nashville
1.29

allows per match

Indy Eleven
1.12
Nashville
0.94

finishing

Indy Eleven+0.00on par
Nashville+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Indy Eleven ↓

Nashville →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Indy Eleven or draw
64%
Indy Eleven or Nashville
72%
Draw or Nashville
64%

Winning margin

Indy Eleven wins by 2+
15%
Nashville wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Indy Eleven 1+ goals
70%
Indy Eleven 2+ goals
34%
Indy Eleven 3+ goals
12%
Nashville 1+ goals
70%
Nashville 2+ goals
34%
Nashville 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Indy Eleven (draw refunded)
50%
Nashville (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Indy Eleven at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.12 · 135 matches

Nashville away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.94 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Indy Eleven attack 1.49 + Nashville defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.21

Nashville attack 1.29 + Indy Eleven defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Indy Eleven scores more
36%
level
28%
Nashville scores more
36%

Indy Eleven at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Indy Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Indy Eleven 0–0 Nashville

Indy Eleven and Nashville drew 0-0 in USL Championship on May 25, 2019.

The match was played at Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, Indiana).