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Indy Eleven vs Hartford Athletic — USL Championship 2026

Indy Eleven
Indy Eleven
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hartford Athletic
Hartford Athletic
3/30/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 7Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, Indiana)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Indy Eleven49%
×Draw24%
Hartford Athletic27%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Indy Eleven
1.69
Hartford Athletic
1.18

Indy Eleven creates 43% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 112 away

creates per match

Indy Eleven
1.48
Hartford Athletic
1.25

allows per match

Indy Eleven
1.11
Hartford Athletic
1.90

finishing

Indy Eleven+0.00on par
Hartford Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Indy Eleven ↓

Hartford Athletic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Indy Eleven or draw
73%
Indy Eleven or Hartford Athletic
76%
Draw or Hartford Athletic
51%

Winning margin

Indy Eleven wins by 2+
26%
Hartford Athletic wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Indy Eleven 1+ goals
82%
Indy Eleven 2+ goals
50%
Indy Eleven 3+ goals
24%
Hartford Athletic 1+ goals
69%
Hartford Athletic 2+ goals
33%
Hartford Athletic 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Indy Eleven (draw refunded)
65%
Hartford Athletic (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Indy Eleven at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.11 · 132 matches

Hartford Athletic away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.90 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Indy Eleven attack 1.48 + Hartford Athletic defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.69

Hartford Athletic attack 1.25 + Indy Eleven defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Indy Eleven scores more
49%
level
24%
Hartford Athletic scores more
27%

Indy Eleven at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Indy Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Indy Eleven 1–0 Hartford Athletic

Indy Eleven beat Hartford Athletic 1-0 in USL Championship on March 30, 2019.

The match was played at Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, Indiana).