Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hartford Athletic vs Indy Eleven — USL Championship 2026

Hartford Athletic
Hartford Athletic
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Indy Eleven
Indy Eleven
9/3/2025USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 27Trinity Health Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 116+ matches

Hartford Athletic43%
×Draw25%
Indy Eleven32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hartford Athletic
1.54
Indy Eleven
1.31

Hartford Athletic creates 18% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 130 away

creates per match

Hartford Athletic
1.51
Indy Eleven
1.12

allows per match

Hartford Athletic
1.50
Indy Eleven
1.58

finishing

Hartford Athletic+0.00on par
Indy Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hartford Athletic ↓

Indy Eleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Hartford Athletic or draw
68%
Hartford Athletic or Indy Eleven
75%
Draw or Indy Eleven
57%

Winning margin

Hartford Athletic wins by 2+
21%
Indy Eleven wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hartford Athletic 1+ goals
79%
Hartford Athletic 2+ goals
45%
Hartford Athletic 3+ goals
20%
Indy Eleven 1+ goals
73%
Indy Eleven 2+ goals
38%
Indy Eleven 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hartford Athletic (draw refunded)
57%
Indy Eleven (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hartford Athletic at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.50 · 116 matches

Indy Eleven away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.58 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hartford Athletic attack 1.51 + Indy Eleven defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.54

Indy Eleven attack 1.12 + Hartford Athletic defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hartford Athletic scores more
43%
level
25%
Indy Eleven scores more
32%

Hartford Athletic at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hartford Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Hartford Athletic 0–2 Indy Eleven

Indy Eleven beat Hartford Athletic 2-0 in USL Championship on September 3, 2025.

The match was played at Trinity Health Stadium.