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Indy Eleven vs Greenville Triumph — USL League One Cup 2024

Indy Eleven
Indy Eleven
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Greenville Triumph
Greenville Triumphadvanced
8/20/2025USL League One CupUSL League One Cup · Quarter-finalsMichael A. Carroll Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Indy Eleven49%
×Draw25%
Greenville Triumph25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Indy Eleven
1.58
Greenville Triumph
1.06

Indy Eleven creates 49% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

Indy Eleven
1.67
Greenville Triumph
1.13

allows per match

Indy Eleven
1.00
Greenville Triumph
1.50

finishing

Indy Eleven+0.00on par
Greenville Triumph+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Indy Eleven ↓

Greenville Triumph →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Indy Eleven or draw
75%
Indy Eleven or Greenville Triumph
75%
Draw or Greenville Triumph
51%

Winning margin

Indy Eleven wins by 2+
26%
Greenville Triumph wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Indy Eleven 1+ goals
79%
Indy Eleven 2+ goals
47%
Indy Eleven 3+ goals
21%
Greenville Triumph 1+ goals
65%
Greenville Triumph 2+ goals
29%
Greenville Triumph 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Indy Eleven (draw refunded)
66%
Greenville Triumph (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Indy Eleven at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Greenville Triumph away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Indy Eleven attack 1.67 + Greenville Triumph defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.58

Greenville Triumph attack 1.13 + Indy Eleven defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Indy Eleven scores more
49%
level
25%
Greenville Triumph scores more
25%

Indy Eleven at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Indy Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League One Cup: Indy Eleven 1–1 Greenville Triumph

Indy Eleven and Greenville Triumph drew 1-1 in USL League One Cup on August 20, 2025.

The match was played at Michael A. Carroll Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana.