Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Indy Eleven vs El Paso Locomotive — USL Championship 2026

Indy Eleven
Indy Eleven
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
El Paso Locomotive
El Paso Locomotive
9/14/2024USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 33Michael A. Carroll Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Indy Eleven44%
×Draw26%
El Paso Locomotive30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Indy Eleven
1.43
El Paso Locomotive
1.13

Indy Eleven creates 27% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 115 away

creates per match

Indy Eleven
1.49
El Paso Locomotive
1.14

allows per match

Indy Eleven
1.12
El Paso Locomotive
1.36

finishing

Indy Eleven+0.00on par
El Paso Locomotive+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Indy Eleven ↓

El Paso Locomotive →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Indy Eleven or draw
70%
Indy Eleven or El Paso Locomotive
74%
Draw or El Paso Locomotive
56%

Winning margin

Indy Eleven wins by 2+
21%
El Paso Locomotive wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Indy Eleven 1+ goals
76%
Indy Eleven 2+ goals
42%
Indy Eleven 3+ goals
17%
El Paso Locomotive 1+ goals
68%
El Paso Locomotive 2+ goals
31%
El Paso Locomotive 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Indy Eleven (draw refunded)
60%
El Paso Locomotive (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Indy Eleven at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.12 · 134 matches

El Paso Locomotive away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.36 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Indy Eleven attack 1.49 + El Paso Locomotive defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.43

El Paso Locomotive attack 1.14 + Indy Eleven defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Indy Eleven scores more
44%
level
26%
El Paso Locomotive scores more
30%

Indy Eleven at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Indy Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Indy Eleven 3–1 El Paso Locomotive

Indy Eleven beat El Paso Locomotive 3-1 in USL Championship on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at Michael A. Carroll Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana.