Indy Eleven 3–0 Des Moines Menace: Result & Stats

Indy Eleven

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Des Moines Menace

C. Sharp 75'

N. Okello 60'

L. Mesanvi 31'

3/18/2026

US Open Cup · Round of 128Michael A. Carroll Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Indy Eleven54%

×Draw24%

Des Moines Menace23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Indy ElevenExpected goals in this matchDes Moines Menace

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.03

Indy Eleven

1.73

Des Moines Menace

1.03

Indy Eleven creates 68% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.67

creates per match

1.40

0.67

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Indy Eleven

1.67

Des Moines Menace

1.40

allows per match

Indy Eleven

0.67

Des Moines Menace

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Indy Eleven+0.00on par

Des Moines Menace+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Indy Eleven ↓

Des Moines Menace →

0–06%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Indy Eleven or draw

77%

Indy Eleven or Des Moines Menace

76%

Draw or Des Moines Menace

46%

Winning margin

Indy Eleven wins by 2+

30%

Des Moines Menace wins by 2+

Team goals

Indy Eleven 1+ goals

82%

Indy Eleven 2+ goals

52%

Indy Eleven 3+ goals

25%

Des Moines Menace 1+ goals

64%

Des Moines Menace 2+ goals

28%

Des Moines Menace 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Indy Eleven (draw refunded)

70%

Des Moines Menace (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Indy Eleven at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Des Moines Menace away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Indy Eleven attack 1.67 + Des Moines Menace defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.73

Des Moines Menace attack 1.40 + Indy Eleven defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Indy Eleven scores more

54%

level

24%

Des Moines Menace scores more

23%

Indy Eleven at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Indy Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

L. Mesanvi

60'

N. Okello↳ A. Mitrano

75'

C. Sharp↳ D. Sing

Indy

Des

Manager: Sean McAuley

Manager: C. Latshaw III