Indy Eleven 0–0 Chicago Fire: Result & Stats

Indy Eleven

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Chicago Fire

2/13/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Indy Eleven44%

×Draw29%

Chicago Fire28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Indy ElevenExpected goals in this matchChicago Fire

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.93

Indy Eleven

1.25

Chicago Fire

0.93

Indy Eleven creates 34% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

1.50

creates per match

1.22

0.63

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Indy Eleven

1.50

Chicago Fire

1.22

allows per match

Indy Eleven

0.63

Chicago Fire

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Indy Eleven+0.00on par

Chicago Fire+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Indy Eleven ↓

Chicago Fire →

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Indy Eleven or draw

72%

Indy Eleven or Chicago Fire

71%

Draw or Chicago Fire

56%

Winning margin

Indy Eleven wins by 2+

20%

Chicago Fire wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Indy Eleven 1+ goals

71%

Indy Eleven 2+ goals

36%

Indy Eleven 3+ goals

13%

Chicago Fire 1+ goals

61%

Chicago Fire 2+ goals

24%

Chicago Fire 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Indy Eleven (draw refunded)

61%

Chicago Fire (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Indy Eleven at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

Chicago Fire away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Indy Eleven attack 1.50 + Chicago Fire defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Chicago Fire attack 1.22 + Indy Eleven defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Indy Eleven scores more

44%

level

29%

Chicago Fire scores more

28%

Indy Eleven at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Indy Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff