Indonesia W 4–2 New Caledonia W: Result & Stats

Indonesia W

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

New Caledonia W

C. Scheunemann 59'

I. Sheva 53', 29'

E. Nahon 19'

L. Hmae 80'

J. Honakoko 61'

4/15/2026

Friendlies Women · Friendly International Women

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Indonesia W49%

×Draw21%

New Caledonia W30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Indonesia WExpected goals in this matchNew Caledonia W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.69

Indonesia W

2.19

New Caledonia W

1.69

Indonesia W creates 30% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

1.63

creates per match

1.00

2.38

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Indonesia W

1.63

New Caledonia W

1.00

allows per match

Indonesia W

2.38

New Caledonia W

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Indonesia W+0.00on par

New Caledonia W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Indonesia W ↓

New Caledonia W →

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Indonesia W or draw

70%

Indonesia W or New Caledonia W

79%

Draw or New Caledonia W

51%

Winning margin

Indonesia W wins by 2+

29%

New Caledonia W wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Indonesia W 1+ goals

89%

Indonesia W 2+ goals

64%

Indonesia W 3+ goals

37%

New Caledonia W 1+ goals

82%

New Caledonia W 2+ goals

50%

New Caledonia W 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Indonesia W (draw refunded)

62%

New Caledonia W (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Indonesia W at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

New Caledonia W away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Indonesia W attack 1.63 + New Caledonia W defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.19

New Caledonia W attack 1.00 + Indonesia W defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Indonesia W scores more

49%

level

21%

New Caledonia W scores more

30%

Indonesia W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Indonesia W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

29'

53'

59'

61'

80'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff