Indonesia W 1–7 Congo DR W: Result & Stats

Indonesia W

1 – 7

HT: 1 – 3

Congo DR W

C. Scheunemann 7'

J. Feza 82'

F. Mawete 74', 29'

M. Kanjinga 59', 23'

O. Massombo 52'

M. Yav Kasaj 45'

4/12/2026

Friendlies Women · Friendly International Women

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Indonesia W37%

×Draw22%

Congo DR W41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Indonesia WExpected goals in this matchCongo DR W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.85

Indonesia W

1.76

Congo DR W

1.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

1.63

creates per match

1.33

2.38

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Indonesia W

1.63

Congo DR W

1.33

allows per match

Indonesia W

2.38

Congo DR W

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Indonesia W+0.00on par

Congo DR W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Indonesia W ↓

Congo DR W →

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–02%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Indonesia W or draw

59%

Indonesia W or Congo DR W

78%

Draw or Congo DR W

63%

Winning margin

Indonesia W wins by 2+

19%

Congo DR W wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Indonesia W 1+ goals

83%

Indonesia W 2+ goals

52%

Indonesia W 3+ goals

26%

Congo DR W 1+ goals

84%

Congo DR W 2+ goals

55%

Congo DR W 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Indonesia W (draw refunded)

48%

Congo DR W (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Indonesia W at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

Congo DR W away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Indonesia W attack 1.63 + Congo DR W defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.76

Congo DR W attack 1.33 + Indonesia W defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Indonesia W scores more

37%

level

22%

Congo DR W scores more

41%

Congo DR W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Congo DR W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

29'

45'

52'

59'

74'

82'

Indonesia

Congo

⚽2

⚽

⚽

⚽2

⚽

Indonesia W substitutes

AlleanaDesrina17RiskiFiryalArifahAfiantiNadhifa16NurrohmahRambeMabrurohHandayaniNori

Congo DR W substitutes

16Katembo1Nsame13Mabomba15Feza17Kipoyi

Match Recap: Indonesia W vs Congo DR W

Congo DR W beat Indonesia W 7-1 in Friendlies Women on April 12, 2026.

Goals: C. Scheunemann (7'), M. Kanjinga (23', 59'), F. Mawete (29', 74'), M. Yav Kasaj (45'), O. Massombo (52'), J. Feza (82').

Indonesia W vs Congo DR W — Friendlies Women 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Indonesia W vs Congo DR W