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Indonesia W vs Chinese Taipei W — Friendlies Women 2026

Indonesia W
Indonesia W
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Chinese Taipei W
Chinese Taipei W
11/29/2025Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Indonesia W42%
×Draw22%
Chinese Taipei W36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Indonesia W
1.88
Chinese Taipei W
1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 15 away

creates per match

Indonesia W
1.63
Chinese Taipei W
1.13

allows per match

Indonesia W
2.38
Chinese Taipei W
2.13

finishing

Indonesia W+0.00on par
Chinese Taipei W+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Indonesia W ↓

Chinese Taipei W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Indonesia W or draw
64%
Indonesia W or Chinese Taipei W
78%
Draw or Chinese Taipei W
58%

Winning margin

Indonesia W wins by 2+
22%
Chinese Taipei W wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Indonesia W 1+ goals
85%
Indonesia W 2+ goals
56%
Indonesia W 3+ goals
29%
Chinese Taipei W 1+ goals
83%
Chinese Taipei W 2+ goals
52%
Chinese Taipei W 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Indonesia W (draw refunded)
53%
Chinese Taipei W (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Indonesia W at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

Chinese Taipei W away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Indonesia W attack 1.63 + Chinese Taipei W defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.88

Chinese Taipei W attack 1.13 + Indonesia W defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Indonesia W scores more
42%
level
22%
Chinese Taipei W scores more
36%

Indonesia W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Indonesia W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Indonesia W vs Chinese Taipei W

Chinese Taipei W beat Indonesia W 5-0 in Friendlies Women on November 29, 2025.