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Indonesia vs Timor-Leste — AFF Championship 2018

Indonesia
Indonesia
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Timor-Leste
Timor-Leste
11/13/2018AFF ChampionshipAFF Championship · Group Stage - 2Stadion Utama Gelora Bung Karno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Indonesia54%
×Draw22%
Timor-Leste24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Indonesia
1.90
Timor-Leste
1.20

Indonesia creates 58% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Indonesia
1.30
Timor-Leste
1.10

allows per match

Indonesia
1.30
Timor-Leste
2.50

finishing

Indonesia+0.00on par
Timor-Leste+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Indonesia ↓

Timor-Leste →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Indonesia or draw
76%
Indonesia or Timor-Leste
78%
Draw or Timor-Leste
46%

Winning margin

Indonesia wins by 2+
31%
Timor-Leste wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Indonesia 1+ goals
85%
Indonesia 2+ goals
56%
Indonesia 3+ goals
29%
Timor-Leste 1+ goals
70%
Timor-Leste 2+ goals
34%
Timor-Leste 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Indonesia (draw refunded)
69%
Timor-Leste (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Indonesia at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

Timor-Leste away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Indonesia attack 1.30 + Timor-Leste defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.90

Timor-Leste attack 1.10 + Indonesia defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Indonesia scores more
54%
level
22%
Timor-Leste scores more
24%

Indonesia at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Indonesia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFF Championship: Indonesia 3–1 Timor-Leste

Indonesia beat Timor-Leste 3-1 in AFF Championship on November 13, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Utama Gelora Bung Karno in Jakarta.