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Indonesia vs Iraq — League #30 2026

Indonesia
Indonesia
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Iraq
Iraq
6/6/2024League #30League #30 · 2nd Round - Group F - 5Bung Karno Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Indonesia13%
×Draw22%
Iraq64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Indonesia
0.67
Iraq
1.79

Iraq creates 167% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Indonesia
1.00
Iraq
1.33

allows per match

Indonesia
2.25
Iraq
0.33

finishing

Indonesia+0.00on par
Iraq+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Indonesia ↓

Iraq →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–115%
0–214%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Indonesia or draw
36%
Indonesia or Iraq
78%
Draw or Iraq
87%

Winning margin

Indonesia wins by 2+
3%
Iraq wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Indonesia 1+ goals
49%
Indonesia 2+ goals
15%
Indonesia 3+ goals
3%
Iraq 1+ goals
83%
Iraq 2+ goals
53%
Iraq 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Indonesia (draw refunded)
17%
Iraq (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Indonesia at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Iraq away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Indonesia attack 1.00 + Iraq defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.67

Iraq attack 1.33 + Indonesia defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Indonesia scores more
13%
level
22%
Iraq scores more
64%

Iraq at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Iraq will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #30: Indonesia 0–2 Iraq

Iraq beat Indonesia 2-0 in League #30 on June 6, 2024.

The match was played at Bung Karno Stadium in Jakarta.