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Indonesia U19 vs Myanmar U19 — AFF U19 Championship 2022

Indonesia U19
Indonesia U19
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Myanmar U19
Myanmar U19
D. Wicaksono 87'
D. Adi 79'
A. Kaka 38'
6/1/2026AFF U19 ChampionshipAFF U19 Championship · Group Stage - 1North Sumatra Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Indonesia U1972%
×Draw16%
Myanmar U1912%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Indonesia U19
2.77
Myanmar U19
1.08

Indonesia U19 creates 156% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

creates per match

Indonesia U19
3.33
Myanmar U19
1.60

allows per match

Indonesia U19
0.56
Myanmar U19
2.20

finishing

Indonesia U19+0.00on par
Myanmar U19+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Indonesia U19 ↓

Myanmar U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Indonesia U19 or draw
88%
Indonesia U19 or Myanmar U19
84%
Draw or Myanmar U19
28%

Winning margin

Indonesia U19 wins by 2+
51%
Myanmar U19 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Indonesia U19 1+ goals
94%
Indonesia U19 2+ goals
76%
Indonesia U19 3+ goals
51%
Myanmar U19 1+ goals
66%
Myanmar U19 2+ goals
29%
Myanmar U19 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Indonesia U19 (draw refunded)
85%
Myanmar U19 (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Indonesia U19 at home — creates 3.33, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

Myanmar U19 away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Indonesia U19 attack 3.33 + Myanmar U19 defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.77

Myanmar U19 attack 1.60 + Indonesia U19 defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Indonesia U19 scores more
72%
level
16%
Myanmar U19 scores more
12%

Indonesia U19 at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Indonesia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
A. Kaka
79'
D. Adi
87'
D. Wicaksono

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFF U19 Championship: Indonesia U19 3–0 Myanmar U19

Indonesia U19 beat Myanmar U19 3-0 in AFF U19 Championship on June 1, 2026.

Goals: A. Kaka (38'), D. Adi (79'), D. Wicaksono (87').

The match was played at North Sumatra Stadium in Medan.