Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Indonesia U17 vs Korea DPR U17 — AFC U17 Asian Cup 2023

Indonesia U17
Indonesia U17
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 2
Korea DPR U17
Korea DPR U17advanced
4/14/2025AFC U17 Asian CupAFC U17 Asian Cup · Quarter-finalsAl Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Indonesia U1727%
×Draw20%
Korea DPR U1753%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Indonesia U17
1.58
Korea DPR U17
2.29

Korea DPR U17 creates 45% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Indonesia U17
1.67
Korea DPR U17
2.25

allows per match

Indonesia U17
2.33
Korea DPR U17
1.50

finishing

Indonesia U17+0.00on par
Korea DPR U17+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Indonesia U17 ↓

Korea DPR U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Indonesia U17 or draw
47%
Indonesia U17 or Korea DPR U17
80%
Draw or Korea DPR U17
73%

Winning margin

Indonesia U17 wins by 2+
12%
Korea DPR U17 wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Indonesia U17 1+ goals
79%
Indonesia U17 2+ goals
47%
Indonesia U17 3+ goals
21%
Korea DPR U17 1+ goals
90%
Korea DPR U17 2+ goals
66%
Korea DPR U17 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Indonesia U17 (draw refunded)
33%
Korea DPR U17 (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Indonesia U17 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Korea DPR U17 away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Indonesia U17 attack 1.67 + Korea DPR U17 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.58

Korea DPR U17 attack 2.25 + Indonesia U17 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Indonesia U17 scores more
27%
level
20%
Korea DPR U17 scores more
53%

Korea DPR U17 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Korea DPR U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC U17 Asian Cup: Indonesia U17 0–6 Korea DPR U17

Korea DPR U17 beat Indonesia U17 6-0 in AFC U17 Asian Cup on April 14, 2025.

The match was played at Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City in Jeddah.