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Indjija vs Sloboda Uzice — Prva Liga 2018

Indjija
Indjija
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sloboda Uzice
Sloboda Uzice
3/10/2024Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 24Toyo Tires Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Indjija55%
×Draw26%
Sloboda Uzice19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Indjija
1.52
Sloboda Uzice
0.77

Indjija creates 97% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 76 away

creates per match

Indjija
1.48
Sloboda Uzice
0.62

allows per match

Indjija
0.91
Sloboda Uzice
1.57

finishing

Indjija+0.00on par
Sloboda Uzice+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Indjija ↓

Sloboda Uzice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Indjija or draw
81%
Indjija or Sloboda Uzice
74%
Draw or Sloboda Uzice
45%

Winning margin

Indjija wins by 2+
29%
Sloboda Uzice wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Indjija 1+ goals
78%
Indjija 2+ goals
45%
Indjija 3+ goals
20%
Sloboda Uzice 1+ goals
54%
Sloboda Uzice 2+ goals
18%
Sloboda Uzice 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Indjija (draw refunded)
74%
Sloboda Uzice (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Indjija at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.91 · 94 matches

Sloboda Uzice away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.57 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Indjija attack 1.48 + Sloboda Uzice defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sloboda Uzice attack 0.62 + Indjija defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Indjija scores more
55%
level
26%
Sloboda Uzice scores more
19%

Indjija at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Indjija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Indjija vs Sloboda Uzice

Indjija beat Sloboda Uzice 2-0 in Prva Liga on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Toyo Tires Arena in Inđija.