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Indjija vs RFK Novi Sad — Prva Liga 2018

Indjija
Indjija
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
RFK Novi Sad
RFK Novi Sad
8/26/2023Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 4Toyo Tires Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Indjija62%
×Draw22%
RFK Novi Sad16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Indjija
1.92
RFK Novi Sad
0.87

Indjija creates 121% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 23 away

creates per match

Indjija
1.48
RFK Novi Sad
0.83

allows per match

Indjija
0.91
RFK Novi Sad
2.35

finishing

Indjija+0.00on par
RFK Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Indjija ↓

RFK Novi Sad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Indjija or draw
84%
Indjija or RFK Novi Sad
78%
Draw or RFK Novi Sad
38%

Winning margin

Indjija wins by 2+
37%
RFK Novi Sad wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Indjija 1+ goals
85%
Indjija 2+ goals
57%
Indjija 3+ goals
30%
RFK Novi Sad 1+ goals
58%
RFK Novi Sad 2+ goals
22%
RFK Novi Sad 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Indjija (draw refunded)
79%
RFK Novi Sad (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Indjija at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.91 · 94 matches

RFK Novi Sad away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.35 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Indjija attack 1.48 + RFK Novi Sad defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.92

RFK Novi Sad attack 0.83 + Indjija defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Indjija scores more
62%
level
22%
RFK Novi Sad scores more
16%

Indjija at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Indjija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Indjija 2–1 RFK Novi Sad

Indjija beat RFK Novi Sad 2-1 in Prva Liga on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at Toyo Tires Arena in Inđija.