Indjija 1–3 Mladost Novi Sad: Result & Stats

Indjija

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Mladost Novi Sad

8/31/2024

Prva Liga · Round 5GAT Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Indjija40%

×Draw30%

Mladost Novi Sad30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IndjijaExpected goals in this matchMladost Novi Sad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.95

Indjija

1.13

Mladost Novi Sad

0.95

Indjija creates 19% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 55 away

1.48

creates per match

0.98

0.91

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Indjija

1.48

Mladost Novi Sad

0.98

allows per match

Indjija

0.91

Mladost Novi Sad

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Indjija+0.00on par

Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Indjija ↓

Mladost Novi Sad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Indjija or draw

70%

Indjija or Mladost Novi Sad

70%

Draw or Mladost Novi Sad

60%

Winning margin

Indjija wins by 2+

16%

Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Indjija 1+ goals

68%

Indjija 2+ goals

31%

Indjija 3+ goals

11%

Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals

61%

Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals

25%

Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Indjija (draw refunded)

57%

Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Indjija at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.91 · 94 matches

Mladost Novi Sad away — creates 0.98, concedes 0.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Indjija attack 1.48 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.13

Mladost Novi Sad attack 0.98 + Indjija defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Indjija scores more

40%

level

30%

Mladost Novi Sad scores more

30%

Indjija at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Indjija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff