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Indjija vs Dubočica — Prva Liga 2018

Indjija
Indjija
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dubočica
Dubočica
4/23/2025Prva LigaPrva Liga · Relegation Round - 2Toyo Tires Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Indjija52%
×Draw26%
Dubočica21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Indjija
1.50
Dubočica
0.85

Indjija creates 76% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 73 away

creates per match

Indjija
1.48
Dubočica
0.79

allows per match

Indjija
0.91
Dubočica
1.51

finishing

Indjija+0.00on par
Dubočica+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Indjija ↓

Dubočica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Indjija or draw
79%
Indjija or Dubočica
74%
Draw or Dubočica
48%

Winning margin

Indjija wins by 2+
27%
Dubočica wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Indjija 1+ goals
78%
Indjija 2+ goals
44%
Indjija 3+ goals
19%
Dubočica 1+ goals
57%
Dubočica 2+ goals
21%
Dubočica 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Indjija (draw refunded)
71%
Dubočica (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Indjija at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.91 · 94 matches

Dubočica away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.51 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Indjija attack 1.48 + Dubočica defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.50

Dubočica attack 0.79 + Indjija defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Indjija scores more
52%
level
26%
Dubočica scores more
21%

Indjija at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Indjija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Indjija 3–1 Dubočica

Indjija beat Dubočica 3-1 in Prva Liga on April 23, 2025.

The match was played at Toyo Tires Arena in Inđija.