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Indjija vs Backa — Prva Liga 2018

Indjija
Indjija
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Backa
Backa
3/6/2022Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 24Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Indjija50%
×Draw28%
Backa22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Indjija
1.39
Backa
0.82

Indjija creates 70% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 34 away

creates per match

Indjija
1.48
Backa
0.74

allows per match

Indjija
0.91
Backa
1.29

finishing

Indjija+0.00on par
Backa+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Indjija ↓

Backa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Indjija or draw
78%
Indjija or Backa
72%
Draw or Backa
50%

Winning margin

Indjija wins by 2+
25%
Backa wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Indjija 1+ goals
75%
Indjija 2+ goals
40%
Indjija 3+ goals
16%
Backa 1+ goals
56%
Backa 2+ goals
20%
Backa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Indjija (draw refunded)
69%
Backa (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Indjija at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.91 · 94 matches

Backa away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Indjija attack 1.48 + Backa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.39

Backa attack 0.74 + Indjija defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Indjija scores more
50%
level
28%
Backa scores more
22%

Indjija at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Indjija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Indjija 1 – 1 Backa

Indjija and Backa drew 1-1 in Prva Liga on March 6, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Inđija.