Odense 0–1 AC Horsens: Result & Stats | Superliga

Odense

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

AC Horsens

H. Hansson 28'

8/28/2016

Superliga · Round 7TRE-FOR Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Odense50%

×Draw25%

AC Horsens25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OdenseExpected goals in this matchAC Horsens

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.06

Odense

1.61

AC Horsens

1.06

Odense creates 52% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 67 away

1.46

creates per match

0.84

1.28

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Odense

1.46

AC Horsens

0.84

allows per match

Odense

1.28

AC Horsens

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Odense+0.00on par

AC Horsens+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odense ↓

AC Horsens →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Odense or draw

75%

Odense or AC Horsens

75%

Draw or AC Horsens

50%

Winning margin

Odense wins by 2+

26%

AC Horsens wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Odense 1+ goals

80%

Odense 2+ goals

48%

Odense 3+ goals

22%

AC Horsens 1+ goals

65%

AC Horsens 2+ goals

29%

AC Horsens 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Odense (draw refunded)

67%

AC Horsens (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odense at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.28 · 120 matches

AC Horsens away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.76 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odense attack 1.46 + AC Horsens defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.61

AC Horsens attack 0.84 + Odense defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Odense scores more

50%

level

25%

AC Horsens scores more

25%

Odense at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Odense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

35'

45'

46'

58'

J. Gemmer← D. Tshiembe

59'

Jonas Gemmer

63'

M. Greve← M. El Makrini

63'

T. Mikkelsen← R. Jönsson

72'

J. Mehl← H. Hansson

78'

M. Jespersen← P. Nymann

90'

Anders Jacobsen

90'

Andre Bjerregaard

Possession

Shots

Statistics

OdenseAC

Overview

60%Possession40%

9Total Shots3

11Corners1

9Fouls9

Shots

9Total Shots3

3On Target3

6Off Target0

Passing

60%Possession40%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls9

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

2Offsides0