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Consadole Sapporo vs Kitakyushu — J2 League 2018

Consadole Sapporo
Consadole Sapporo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kitakyushu
Kitakyushu
H. Miyazawa 45+1'
6/19/2016J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 19Sapporo Dome (Sapporo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Consadole Sapporo46%
×Draw26%
Kitakyushu29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Consadole Sapporo
1.52
Kitakyushu
1.14

Consadole Sapporo creates 33% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 50 away

creates per match

Consadole Sapporo
1.48
Kitakyushu
1.04

allows per match

Consadole Sapporo
1.24
Kitakyushu
1.56

finishing

Consadole Sapporo+0.00on par
Kitakyushu+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Consadole Sapporo ↓

Kitakyushu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Consadole Sapporo or draw
71%
Consadole Sapporo or Kitakyushu
74%
Draw or Kitakyushu
54%

Winning margin

Consadole Sapporo wins by 2+
23%
Kitakyushu wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Consadole Sapporo 1+ goals
78%
Consadole Sapporo 2+ goals
45%
Consadole Sapporo 3+ goals
20%
Kitakyushu 1+ goals
68%
Kitakyushu 2+ goals
32%
Kitakyushu 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Consadole Sapporo (draw refunded)
62%
Kitakyushu (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Consadole Sapporo at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.24 · 29 matches

Kitakyushu away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.56 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Consadole Sapporo attack 1.48 + Kitakyushu defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.52

Kitakyushu attack 1.04 + Consadole Sapporo defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Consadole Sapporo scores more
46%
level
26%
Kitakyushu scores more
29%

Consadole Sapporo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Consadole Sapporo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+1'
H. Miyazawa
69'
Julinho← Jonathan Reis
69'
H. Mae← Y. Uchimura
69'
K. Kato← K. Kazama
76'
R. Komatsu← T. Ikemoto
82'
M. Motoyama← J. Arai
89'
S. Uehara← Diego Macedo

J2 League: Consadole Sapporo 1–0 Kitakyushu

Consadole Sapporo beat Kitakyushu 1-0 in J2 League on June 19, 2016.

Goals: H. Miyazawa (45+1').

The match was played at Sapporo Dome (Sapporo).