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Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Guangzhou R&F — Super League 2026

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Guangzhou R&F
Guangzhou R&F
Gao Lin 90+1'
Alan 9'
Renatinho 64'
E. Zahavi 42' (pen)
4/8/2017Super LeagueSuper League · Round 4Tianhe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC54%
×Draw22%
Guangzhou R&F23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.89
Guangzhou R&F
1.15

Guangzhou Evergrande FC creates 64% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 69 away

creates per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.97
Guangzhou R&F
1.19

allows per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.10
Guangzhou R&F
1.81

finishing

Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par
Guangzhou R&F+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangzhou Evergrande FC ↓

Guangzhou R&F →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Guangzhou Evergrande FC or draw
77%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC or Guangzhou R&F
78%
Draw or Guangzhou R&F
46%

Winning margin

Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+
31%
Guangzhou R&F wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals
85%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals
56%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals
29%
Guangzhou R&F 1+ goals
68%
Guangzhou R&F 2+ goals
32%
Guangzhou R&F 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)
70%
Guangzhou R&F (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.10 · 69 matches

Guangzhou R&F away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.97 + Guangzhou R&F defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.89

Guangzhou R&F attack 1.19 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more
54%
level
22%
Guangzhou R&F scores more
23%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Guangzhou Evergrande FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
Zhang LinpengGuangzhou Evergrande FCGuangzhou Evergrande FC · D
7.8

Match Events

9'
Alan↳ Zheng Zhi
20'
Fang Mei
20'
Zheng Long← Wen Jiabao
42'
E. ZahaviPenalty
63'
Zhi Zheng
64'
Renatinho
65'
Huang Bowen← Zheng Zhi
68'
Gao Lin← Zheng Long
72'
Zhizhao Chen
78'
Zeng Chao← Xiao Zhi
78'
Li Tixiang← Chen Zhizhao
79'
Bowen Huang
87'
Lu Lin← Renatinho
90'
Linpeng Zhang
90+1'
Gao Lin↳ Zhang Linpeng

Possession

50%Guangzhou

Shots

11Guangzhou

Pass accuracy

49%Guangzhou

Statistics

GuangzhouGuangzhou
Overview
50%Possession50%
11Total Shots12
5Corners5
18Fouls18
Shots
11Total Shots12
6On Target8
4Off Target3
1Blocked1
10Inside Box5
1Outside Box7
Passing
50%Possession50%
387Total Passes380
299Accurate Passes304
77%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
7Saves3
Discipline
18Fouls18
4Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Guangzhou R&F

Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Guangzhou R&F drew 2-2 in Super League on April 8, 2017.

Goals: Alan (9'), E. Zahavi (42' pen), Renatinho (64'), Gao Lin (90+1').

Guangzhou Evergrande FC controlled possession (50%) and registered 11 shots to 12.

The match was played at Tianhe Stadium in Guangzhou.