Guangzhou R&F 3–3 Guangzhou Evergrande FC

Guangzhou R&F

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

Guilherme 68'

J. Cardona 34' (pen)

Ai Kesen 22' (OG)

Luo Guofu 49' (pen)

Ai Kesen 35', 18'

7/24/2021

Super League · Round 8Yuexiushan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Guangzhou R&F28%

×Draw22%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guangzhou R&FExpected goals in this matchGuangzhou Evergrande FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.97

Guangzhou R&F

1.43

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

1.97

Guangzhou Evergrande FC creates 38% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

1.59

creates per match

1.84

2.10

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Guangzhou R&F

1.59

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

1.84

allows per match

Guangzhou R&F

2.10

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guangzhou R&F+0.00on par

Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangzhou R&F ↓

Guangzhou Evergrande FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Guangzhou R&F or draw

50%

Guangzhou R&F or Guangzhou Evergrande FC

78%

Draw or Guangzhou Evergrande FC

72%

Winning margin

Guangzhou R&F wins by 2+

12%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Guangzhou R&F 1+ goals

76%

Guangzhou R&F 2+ goals

42%

Guangzhou R&F 3+ goals

17%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals

86%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals

58%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Guangzhou R&F (draw refunded)

36%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangzhou R&F at home — creates 1.59, concedes 2.10 · 68 matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.26 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangzhou R&F attack 1.59 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.43

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.84 + Guangzhou R&F defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Guangzhou R&F scores more

28%

level

22%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more

50%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Guangzhou Evergrande FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Ai Kesen

Guangzhou Evergrande FC · F

8.6

Match Events

18'

Ai Kesen↳ A Lan

22'

Ai KesenOwn goal

27'

Song Wenjie

31'

Song WenjiePenalty cancelled

33'

Tyias Browning

34'

J. CardonaPenalty

35'

Ai Kesen↳ A Lan

46'

Wu Shaocong← Yang Liyu

46'

Luo Guofu← Wei Shihao

49'

Luo GuofuPenalty

62'

Guilherme← J. Cardona

63'

Lisheng Liao

63'

Jiang Jihong← Han Pengfei

68'

Guilherme↳ Chen Zhizhao

70'

Tang Miao← Wang Huapeng

70'

He Chao← Liao Lisheng

70'

Ricardo Goulart← A Lan

76'

Yang Xiaotian← Hu Ruibao

76'

Tiago← Song Wenjie

76'

Li Xuepeng← Deng Hanwen

83'

GuilhermePenalty confirmed

85'

Zhunyi Gao

89'

Chun Lok Tan

90+8'

AloisioGoal confirmed

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GuangzhouGuangzhou

Overview

38%Possession62%

4Total Shots16

2Corners6

10Fouls20

Shots

4Total Shots16

2On Target7

2Off Target4

0Blocked5

2Inside Box11

2Outside Box5

Passing

38%Possession62%

340Total Passes552

268Accurate Passes501

79%Pass Accuracy91%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

10Fouls20

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1