AC Horsens 1–5 Aarhus: Result & Stats | Superliga

AC Horsens

FT

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Aarhus

K. Finnbogason 69'

M. Rasmussen 77', 67', 43'

M. Amini 44'

B. Sverrisson 39'

11/25/2016

Superliga · Round 18CASA Arena Horsens

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

AC Horsens31%

×Draw25%

Aarhus44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AC HorsensExpected goals in this matchAarhus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.54

AC Horsens

1.25

Aarhus

1.54

Aarhus creates 23% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 134 away

1.20

creates per match

1.35

1.72

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

AC Horsens

1.20

Aarhus

1.35

allows per match

AC Horsens

1.72

Aarhus

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AC Horsens+0.00on par

Aarhus+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Horsens ↓

Aarhus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

AC Horsens or draw

56%

AC Horsens or Aarhus

75%

Draw or Aarhus

69%

Winning margin

AC Horsens wins by 2+

13%

Aarhus wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

AC Horsens 1+ goals

71%

AC Horsens 2+ goals

36%

AC Horsens 3+ goals

13%

Aarhus 1+ goals

79%

Aarhus 2+ goals

45%

Aarhus 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

AC Horsens (draw refunded)

41%

Aarhus (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Horsens at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.72 · 65 matches

Aarhus away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.30 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Horsens attack 1.20 + Aarhus defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.25

Aarhus attack 1.35 + AC Horsens defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

AC Horsens scores more

31%

level

25%

Aarhus scores more

44%

Aarhus at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Aarhus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

43'

44'

46'

54'

K. Finnbogason← A. Bjerregaard

65'

Mathias Aaris Kragh Nielsen

67'

M. Rasmussen

69'

K. Finnbogason

71'

L. Kryger← M. Jespersen

75'

J. Stage← B. Sverrisson

77'

M. Rasmussen

81'

D. Olsen← E. Bjarnason

84'

K. Junker← M. Spelmann

Possession

Shots

Statistics

ACAarhus

Overview

48%Possession52%

4Total Shots13

7Corners0

9Fouls11

Shots

4Total Shots13

2On Target7

2Off Target6

Passing

48%Possession52%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls11

1Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

3Offsides3