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Aarhus vs AC Horsens — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Aarhus
Aarhus
FT
2 – 1
AC Horsens
AC Horsens
M. Sauer 80'
M. Duelund 10'
Unknown 60'
7/8/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Fredensvang Kunst Bane 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Aarhus52%
×Draw23%
AC Horsens25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aarhus
1.86
AC Horsens
1.24

Aarhus creates 50% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

creates per match

Aarhus
2.42
AC Horsens
1.40

allows per match

Aarhus
1.08
AC Horsens
1.30

finishing

Aarhus+0.00on par
AC Horsens+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aarhus ↓

AC Horsens →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Aarhus or draw
75%
Aarhus or AC Horsens
77%
Draw or AC Horsens
48%

Winning margin

Aarhus wins by 2+
29%
AC Horsens wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Aarhus 1+ goals
84%
Aarhus 2+ goals
55%
Aarhus 3+ goals
28%
AC Horsens 1+ goals
71%
AC Horsens 2+ goals
35%
AC Horsens 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Aarhus (draw refunded)
67%
AC Horsens (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aarhus at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

AC Horsens away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aarhus attack 2.42 + AC Horsens defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.86

AC Horsens attack 1.40 + Aarhus defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Aarhus scores more
52%
level
23%
AC Horsens scores more
25%

Aarhus at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Aarhus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
M. Duelund
60'
80'
M. Sauer

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aarhus vs AC Horsens

Aarhus beat AC Horsens 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 8, 2023.

Goals: M. Duelund (10'), ? (60'), M. Sauer (80').

The match was played at Fredensvang Kunst Bane 4 in Viby J.