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Odense vs Randers FC — Superliga 2026

Odense
Odense
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Randers FC
Randers FC
R. Jönsson 17'
4/18/2017SuperligaSuperliga · Relegation Round - 3EWII Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Odense43%
×Draw24%
Randers FC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odense
1.59
Randers FC
1.35

Odense creates 18% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 23 away

creates per match

Odense
1.79
Randers FC
1.35

allows per match

Odense
1.34
Randers FC
1.40

finishing

Odense-0.16scores less
Randers FC-0.35scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odense ↓

Randers FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Odense or draw
68%
Odense or Randers FC
76%
Draw or Randers FC
57%

Winning margin

Odense wins by 2+
22%
Randers FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Odense 1+ goals
80%
Odense 2+ goals
47%
Odense 3+ goals
21%
Randers FC 1+ goals
74%
Randers FC 2+ goals
39%
Randers FC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Odense (draw refunded)
57%
Randers FC (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odense at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.34 · 16 matches

Randers FC away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.40 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odense attack 1.79 + Randers FC defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.59

Randers FC attack 1.35 + Odense defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Odense scores more
43%
level
24%
Randers FC scores more
32%

Odense at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Odense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
Erik Marxen
15'
Jonas Bager
17'
R. Jönsson
31'
Frederik Tingager
33'
J. Tverskov← R. Festersen
46'
M. Kallesøe← E. Marxen
61'
V. Lundberg← A. Bruhn
70'
A. Jacobsen← R. Jönsson
71'
N. Đurđić← N. Poulsen
83'
M. Welbeck← J. Thomasen

Possession

41%Odense

Shots

4Odense

Statistics

OdenseRanders
Overview
41%Possession59%
4Total Shots8
2Corners7
6Fouls11
Shots
4Total Shots8
3On Target4
1Off Target4
Passing
41%Possession59%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
6Fouls11
0Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
3Offsides4

Superliga: Odense 1–0 Randers FC

Odense beat Randers FC 1-0 in Superliga on April 18, 2017.

Goals: R. Jönsson (17').

Randers FC controlled possession (59%) and registered 8 shots to 4.

The match was played at EWII Park in Odense.