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India W vs Maldives W — Friendlies Women 2026

India W
India W
FT
14 – 0
HT: 8 – 0
Maldives W
Maldives W
K. H. Dsouza 67', 59'
R. Haldar 62'
S. Chanu 55'
L. Serto 53', 29', 21', 12'
S. Basfore 52'
Neha 45', 16'
P. Xaxa 15', 8', 7'
12/30/2024Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2Padukone - Dravid Centre for Sports Excellence

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

India W96%
×Draw3%
Maldives W1%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

India W
5.47
Maldives W
0.69

India W creates 693% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 3 away

creates per match

India W
1.95
Maldives W
0.33

allows per match

India W
1.05
Maldives W
9.00

finishing

India W+0.00on par
Maldives W+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Over
  • Over92
  • Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

India W ↓

Maldives W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–11%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–13%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–011%
4–18%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (11%) · grid covers 52% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
92%8%3.5
80%20%4.5
62%38%

Double chance

India W or draw
99%
India W or Maldives W
97%
Draw or Maldives W
4%

Winning margin

India W wins by 2+
88%
Maldives W wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

India W 1+ goals
99%
India W 2+ goals
96%
India W 3+ goals
87%
Maldives W 1+ goals
50%
Maldives W 2+ goals
15%
Maldives W 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

India W (draw refunded)
99%
Maldives W (draw refunded)
1%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

India W at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.05 · 20 matches

Maldives W away — creates 0.33, concedes 9.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

India W attack 1.95 + Maldives W defence 9.00 → ÷2 → 5.47

Maldives W attack 0.33 + India W defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 96%?"

India W scores more
96%
level
3%
Maldives W scores more
1%

India W at 96% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 96% does not mean "India W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
P. Xaxa
8'
P. Xaxa
12'
L. Serto
15'
P. Xaxa
16'
Neha
21'
L. Serto
29'
L. Serto
45'
Neha
52'
S. Basfore
53'
L. Serto
55'
S. Chanu
56'
K. H. Dsouza← K. H. Dsouza
56'
R. Haldar← R. Haldar
56'
T. Chanu← T. Chanu
59'
K. H. Dsouza
62'
R. Haldar
64'
V. Bara← V. Bara
64'
Pooja← Pooja
67'
K. H. Dsouza
69'
F. Shahuma← F. Shahuma
69'
R. Abdullah← R. Abdullah
81'
F. Inaasha
88'
A. Salaam← A. Salaam
88'
A. Althaf Mohamed← A. Althaf Mohamed

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: India W 14–0 Maldives W

India W beat Maldives W 14-0 in Friendlies Women on December 30, 2024.

Goals: P. Xaxa (7', 8', 15'), L. Serto (12', 21', 29', 53'), Neha (16', 45'), S. Basfore (52'), S. Chanu (55'), K. H. Dsouza (59', 67'), R. Haldar (62').

The match was played at Padukone - Dravid Centre for Sports Excellence in Bengaluru.