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India vs Uzbekistan — Asian Cup 2019

India
India
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Uzbekistan
Uzbekistan
1/18/2024Asian CupAsian Cup · Group Stage - 2Ahmad bin Ali Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

India5%
×Draw16%
Uzbekistan78%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

India
0.38
Uzbekistan
2.13

Uzbekistan creates 461% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

India
0.00
Uzbekistan
2.25

allows per match

India
2.00
Uzbekistan
0.75

finishing

India+0.00on par
Uzbekistan+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

India ↓

Uzbekistan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–117%
0–219%
0–313%
0–47%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–01%
2–11%
2–21%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (19%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

India or draw
22%
India or Uzbekistan
84%
Draw or Uzbekistan
95%

Winning margin

India wins by 2+
1%
Uzbekistan wins by 2+
53%

Team goals

India 1+ goals
32%
India 2+ goals
6%
India 3+ goals
1%
Uzbekistan 1+ goals
88%
Uzbekistan 2+ goals
63%
Uzbekistan 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

India (draw refunded)
6%
Uzbekistan (draw refunded)
94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

India at home — creates 0.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Uzbekistan away — creates 2.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

India attack 0.00 + Uzbekistan defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.38

Uzbekistan attack 2.25 + India defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

India scores more
5%
level
16%
Uzbekistan scores more
78%

Uzbekistan at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Uzbekistan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Asian Cup: India 0–3 Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan beat India 3-0 in Asian Cup on January 18, 2024.

The match was played at Ahmad bin Ali Stadium in Al-Rayyan.