India 2–2 Myanmar: Result & Stats

India

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Myanmar

J. Lalpekhlua 69'

S. Chhetri 13' (pen)

Kyaw Ko Ko 19'

Yan Naing Oo 1'

11/14/2017

Asian Cup - Qualification · Group Stage - 5Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

India64%

×Draw18%

Myanmar18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IndiaExpected goals in this matchMyanmar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

1.25

India

2.50

Myanmar

1.25

India creates 100% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

2.44

creates per match

1.71

0.78

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

India

2.44

Myanmar

1.71

allows per match

India

0.78

Myanmar

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

India+0.00on par

Myanmar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

India ↓

Myanmar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

India or draw

82%

India or Myanmar

82%

Draw or Myanmar

36%

Winning margin

India wins by 2+

43%

Myanmar wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

India 1+ goals

92%

India 2+ goals

71%

India 3+ goals

45%

Myanmar 1+ goals

71%

Myanmar 2+ goals

36%

Myanmar 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

India (draw refunded)

78%

Myanmar (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

India at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

Myanmar away — creates 1.71, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

India attack 2.44 + Myanmar defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.50

Myanmar attack 1.71 + India defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

India scores more

64%

level

18%

Myanmar scores more

18%

India at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "India will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

Yan Naing Oo

13'

S. ChhetriPenalty

19'

Kyaw Ko Ko

39'

Thet Naing← Thein Than Win

64'

Tin Win Aung← Kyaw Ko Ko

69'

J. Lalpekhlua

76'

B. Jairu← H. Narzary

82'

A. Thapa← E. Lyngdoh

90'

Kyi Lin← Hlaing Bo Bo

India

Myanmar

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

Manager: S. Constantine

76'▲B. Jairu←▼H. Narzary

82'▲A. Thapa←▼E. Lyngdoh

India substitutes

JairuThapaSinghLalruattharaRafiquePalSinghDeorySinghDasHalderSingh

Manager: G. Zeise

39'▲Thet Naing←▼Thein Than Win

64'▲Tin Win Aung←▼Kyaw Ko Ko

90'▲Kyi Lin←▼Hlaing Bo Bo

Myanmar substitutes

NaingAungLinZawAungLwinLwinAungSithuTunNaingPaing

Asian Cup - Qualification: India 2–2 Myanmar

India and Myanmar drew 2-2 in Asian Cup - Qualification on November 14, 2017.

Goals: Yan Naing Oo (1'), S. Chhetri (13' pen), Kyaw Ko Ko (19'), J. Lalpekhlua (69').

The match was played at Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium in Margao, Goa.

India vs Myanmar — Asian Cup - Qualification 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Asian Cup - Qualification: India 2–2 Myanmar