Independiente 2–1 San Marcos de Arica

Independiente

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

San Marcos de Arica

4/24/2022

Segunda División · Round 4Estadio Fiscal de Talca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Independiente36%

×Draw29%

San Marcos de Arica36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IndependienteExpected goals in this matchSan Marcos de Arica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

Independiente

1.14

San Marcos de Arica

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 11 away

1.27

creates per match

1.00

1.27

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Independiente

1.27

San Marcos de Arica

1.00

allows per match

Independiente

1.27

San Marcos de Arica

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente+0.00on par

San Marcos de Arica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente ↓

San Marcos de Arica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Independiente or draw

64%

Independiente or San Marcos de Arica

71%

Draw or San Marcos de Arica

64%

Winning margin

Independiente wins by 2+

15%

San Marcos de Arica wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Independiente 1+ goals

68%

Independiente 2+ goals

32%

Independiente 3+ goals

11%

San Marcos de Arica 1+ goals

68%

San Marcos de Arica 2+ goals

32%

San Marcos de Arica 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Independiente (draw refunded)

50%

San Marcos de Arica (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.27 · 33 matches

San Marcos de Arica away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente attack 1.27 + San Marcos de Arica defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

San Marcos de Arica attack 1.00 + Independiente defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Independiente scores more

36%

level

29%

San Marcos de Arica scores more

36%

Independiente at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Independiente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff