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Independiente vs Rodelindo Román — Segunda División 2020

Independiente
Independiente
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rodelindo Román
Rodelindo Román
4/10/2022Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 2Estadio Fiscal de Talca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Independiente42%
×Draw26%
Rodelindo Román33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente
1.46
Rodelindo Román
1.27

Independiente creates 15% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 22 away

creates per match

Independiente
1.27
Rodelindo Román
1.27

allows per match

Independiente
1.27
Rodelindo Román
1.64

finishing

Independiente+0.00on par
Rodelindo Román+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente ↓

Rodelindo Román →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Independiente or draw
67%
Independiente or Rodelindo Román
74%
Draw or Rodelindo Román
58%

Winning margin

Independiente wins by 2+
20%
Rodelindo Román wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Independiente 1+ goals
77%
Independiente 2+ goals
43%
Independiente 3+ goals
18%
Rodelindo Román 1+ goals
72%
Rodelindo Román 2+ goals
36%
Rodelindo Román 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Independiente (draw refunded)
56%
Rodelindo Román (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.27 · 33 matches

Rodelindo Román away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.64 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente attack 1.27 + Rodelindo Román defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.46

Rodelindo Román attack 1.27 + Independiente defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Independiente scores more
42%
level
26%
Rodelindo Román scores more
33%

Independiente at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Independiente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Independiente 0–1 Rodelindo Román

Rodelindo Román beat Independiente 1-0 in Segunda División on April 10, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Fiscal de Talca in Talca.