Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Independiente vs Recoleta — Segunda División 2020

Independiente
Independiente
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Recoleta
Recoleta
5/30/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 1Estadio Fiscal de Talca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Independiente31%
×Draw25%
Recoleta43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente
1.23
Recoleta
1.50

Recoleta creates 22% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 22 away

creates per match

Independiente
1.27
Recoleta
1.73

allows per match

Independiente
1.27
Recoleta
1.18

finishing

Independiente+0.00on par
Recoleta+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente ↓

Recoleta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Independiente or draw
57%
Independiente or Recoleta
75%
Draw or Recoleta
69%

Winning margin

Independiente wins by 2+
13%
Recoleta wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Independiente 1+ goals
71%
Independiente 2+ goals
35%
Independiente 3+ goals
13%
Recoleta 1+ goals
78%
Recoleta 2+ goals
44%
Recoleta 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Independiente (draw refunded)
42%
Recoleta (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.27 · 33 matches

Recoleta away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.18 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente attack 1.27 + Recoleta defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.23

Recoleta attack 1.73 + Independiente defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Independiente scores more
31%
level
25%
Recoleta scores more
43%

Recoleta at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Recoleta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Independiente 0–1 Recoleta

Recoleta beat Independiente 1-0 in Segunda División on May 30, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Fiscal de Talca in Talca.