Independiente 2–2 Rangers de Talca: Result & Stats

Independiente

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Rangers de Talca

3/24/2019

Copa Chile · 1st RoundEstadio Miguel Alarcón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Independiente56%

×Draw19%

Rangers de Talca25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IndependienteExpected goals in this matchRangers de Talca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

1.58

Independiente

2.42

Rangers de Talca

1.58

Independiente creates 53% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

3.33

creates per match

1.50

1.67

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Independiente

3.33

Rangers de Talca

1.50

allows per match

Independiente

1.67

Rangers de Talca

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente+0.00on par

Rangers de Talca+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente ↓

Rangers de Talca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Independiente or draw

75%

Independiente or Rangers de Talca

81%

Draw or Rangers de Talca

44%

Winning margin

Independiente wins by 2+

35%

Rangers de Talca wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Independiente 1+ goals

91%

Independiente 2+ goals

69%

Independiente 3+ goals

43%

Rangers de Talca 1+ goals

79%

Rangers de Talca 2+ goals

47%

Rangers de Talca 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Independiente (draw refunded)

69%

Rangers de Talca (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente at home — creates 3.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Rangers de Talca away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente attack 3.33 + Rangers de Talca defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.42

Rangers de Talca attack 1.50 + Independiente defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Independiente scores more

56%

level

19%

Rangers de Talca scores more

25%

Independiente at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Independiente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff