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Independiente vs Nublense — Copa Chile 2019

Independiente
Independiente
Pens
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Nublense
Nublense
6/25/2022Copa ChileCopa Chile · 3rd RoundEstadio Fiscal de Talca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Independiente54%
×Draw20%
Nublense25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente
2.21
Nublense
1.46

Independiente creates 51% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 21 away

creates per match

Independiente
3.33
Nublense
1.24

allows per match

Independiente
1.67
Nublense
1.10

finishing

Independiente+0.00on par
Nublense+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente ↓

Nublense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Independiente or draw
75%
Independiente or Nublense
80%
Draw or Nublense
46%

Winning margin

Independiente wins by 2+
33%
Nublense wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Independiente 1+ goals
89%
Independiente 2+ goals
65%
Independiente 3+ goals
38%
Nublense 1+ goals
77%
Nublense 2+ goals
43%
Nublense 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Independiente (draw refunded)
68%
Nublense (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente at home — creates 3.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Nublense away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente attack 3.33 + Nublense defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 2.21

Nublense attack 1.24 + Independiente defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Independiente scores more
54%
level
20%
Nublense scores more
25%

Independiente at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Independiente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Independiente vs Nublense

Nublense beat Independiente 1-0 in Copa Chile on June 25, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Fiscal de Talca in Talca.