Independiente 2–2 Municipal Limeño: Result & Stats

Independiente

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Municipal Limeño

R. Burgos 77'

T. Peña 65' (pen)

W. Mancia 61'

Y. Salamanca 41' (pen)

11/17/2019

Primera Division · Apertura - 19Estadio Jiboa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Independiente36%

×Draw28%

Municipal Limeño36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IndependienteExpected goals in this matchMunicipal Limeño

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

Independiente

1.16

Municipal Limeño

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 130 away

1.00

creates per match

1.07

1.25

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Independiente

1.00

Municipal Limeño

1.07

allows per match

Independiente

1.25

Municipal Limeño

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente+0.00on par

Municipal Limeño+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente ↓

Municipal Limeño →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Independiente or draw

64%

Independiente or Municipal Limeño

72%

Draw or Municipal Limeño

64%

Winning margin

Independiente wins by 2+

15%

Municipal Limeño wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Independiente 1+ goals

69%

Independiente 2+ goals

32%

Independiente 3+ goals

11%

Municipal Limeño 1+ goals

69%

Municipal Limeño 2+ goals

32%

Municipal Limeño 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Independiente (draw refunded)

50%

Municipal Limeño (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

Municipal Limeño away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.32 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente attack 1.00 + Municipal Limeño defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.16

Municipal Limeño attack 1.07 + Independiente defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Independiente scores more

36%

level

28%

Municipal Limeño scores more

36%

Independiente at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Independiente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

Y. SalamancaPenalty

44'

Ever Flores← M. Morales

61'

W. Mancia

65'

T. PeñaPenalty

70'

E. Sánchez← Y. Salamanca

74'

D. Luna← E. Rodríguez

75'

K. Calderón← M. Ascensio

76'

R. Burgos← C. Gómez

77'

R. Burgos

83'

M. Murillo← H. Alas

Independiente

Municipal

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: E. Flores

44'▲Ever Flores←▼M. Morales

74'▲D. Luna←▼E. Rodríguez

76'▲R. Burgos←▼C. Gómez

Independiente substitutes

FloresLunaBurgos

Manager: W. Renderos

70'▲E. Sánchez←▼Y. Salamanca

75'▲K. Calderón←▼M. Ascensio

83'▲M. Murillo←▼H. Alas

Municipal Limeño substitutes

SánchezCalderónMurillo