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Independiente vs Iberia — Segunda División 2020

Independiente
Independiente
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Iberia
Iberia
7/25/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 7Estadio Fiscal de Talca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Independiente33%
×Draw27%
Iberia40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente
1.15
Iberia
1.29

Iberia creates 12% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 46 away

creates per match

Independiente
1.27
Iberia
1.30

allows per match

Independiente
1.27
Iberia
1.02

finishing

Independiente+0.00on par
Iberia+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente ↓

Iberia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Independiente or draw
60%
Independiente or Iberia
73%
Draw or Iberia
67%

Winning margin

Independiente wins by 2+
13%
Iberia wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Independiente 1+ goals
68%
Independiente 2+ goals
32%
Independiente 3+ goals
11%
Iberia 1+ goals
72%
Iberia 2+ goals
37%
Iberia 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Independiente (draw refunded)
45%
Iberia (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.27 · 33 matches

Iberia away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.02 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente attack 1.27 + Iberia defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.15

Iberia attack 1.30 + Independiente defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Independiente scores more
33%
level
27%
Iberia scores more
40%

Iberia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Iberia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Independiente 2–3 Iberia

Iberia beat Independiente 3-2 in Segunda División on July 25, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Fiscal de Talca in Talca.