Independiente 1–1 Godoy Cruz: Result & Stats

Independiente

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Godoy Cruz

F. Loyola 61'

S. Rodríguez 87'

10/26/2024

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 19Estadio Libertadores de América

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Independiente44%

×Draw31%

Godoy Cruz25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IndependienteExpected goals in this matchGodoy Cruz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.77

Independiente

1.14

Godoy Cruz

0.77

Independiente creates 48% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 10 away

1.03

creates per match

0.85

0.69

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Independiente

1.03

Godoy Cruz

0.85

allows per match

Independiente

0.69

Godoy Cruz

1.25

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

Independiente+0.17scores more

Godoy Cruz+0.05on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente ↓

Godoy Cruz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Independiente or draw

75%

Independiente or Godoy Cruz

69%

Draw or Godoy Cruz

56%

Winning margin

Independiente wins by 2+

19%

Godoy Cruz wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Independiente 1+ goals

68%

Independiente 2+ goals

32%

Independiente 3+ goals

11%

Godoy Cruz 1+ goals

54%

Godoy Cruz 2+ goals

18%

Godoy Cruz 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Independiente (draw refunded)

64%

Godoy Cruz (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.69 · 15 matches

Godoy Cruz away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.25 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente attack 1.03 + Godoy Cruz defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.14

Godoy Cruz attack 0.85 + Independiente defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Independiente scores more

44%

level

31%

Godoy Cruz scores more

25%

Independiente at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Independiente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

44

S. Montiel

Independiente · M

7.7

Match Events

48'

Elías Pereyra

58'

D. Barrea← F. Altamira

61'

F. Loyola↳ F. Mancuello

70'

D. Martínez← F. Mancuello

73'

G. Moreyra← V. Poggi

78'

S. López Grobin← N. Vallejo

83'

Adrián Spörle

83'

M. Pino← B. Leyes

86'

Lucas Arce

87'

Federico Vera

87'

S. Rodríguez↳ G. Moreyra

90+1'

S. Hidalgo← I. Marcone

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteGodoy

Overview

58%Possession42%

10Total Shots10

0.52Expected Goals (xG)0.68

9Corners5

10Fouls15

Shots

10Total Shots10

5On Target4

2Off Target4

3Blocked2

7Inside Box6

3Outside Box4

Passing

58%Possession42%

407Total Passes296

331Accurate Passes231

81%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

0.47Goals Prevented0.47

Discipline

10Fouls15

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1