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Independiente vs Deportivo Laferrere — Copa Argentina 2026

Independiente
Independiente
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Laferrere
Deportivo Laferrere
3/22/2024Copa ArgentinaCopa Argentina · 1st RoundEstadio Ciudad de Lanús - Néstor Díaz Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Independiente90%
×Draw8%
Deportivo Laferrere3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente
3.20
Deportivo Laferrere
0.41

Independiente creates 680% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

creates per match

Independiente
2.89
Deportivo Laferrere
0.25

allows per match

Independiente
0.56
Deportivo Laferrere
3.50

finishing

Independiente+0.00on par
Deportivo Laferrere+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente ↓

Deportivo Laferrere →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–015%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–012%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (15%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Independiente or draw
97%
Independiente or Deportivo Laferrere
92%
Draw or Deportivo Laferrere
10%

Winning margin

Independiente wins by 2+
73%
Deportivo Laferrere wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Independiente 1+ goals
96%
Independiente 2+ goals
82%
Independiente 3+ goals
60%
Deportivo Laferrere 1+ goals
34%
Deportivo Laferrere 2+ goals
6%
Deportivo Laferrere 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Independiente (draw refunded)
97%
Deportivo Laferrere (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente at home — creates 2.89, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

Deportivo Laferrere away — creates 0.25, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente attack 2.89 + Deportivo Laferrere defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 3.20

Deportivo Laferrere attack 0.25 + Independiente defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 90%?"

Independiente scores more
90%
level
8%
Deportivo Laferrere scores more
3%

Independiente at 90% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 90% does not mean "Independiente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Independiente vs Deportivo Laferrere

Independiente beat Deportivo Laferrere 3-0 in Copa Argentina on March 22, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Lanús - Néstor Díaz Pérez in Lanús, Provincia de Buenos Aires.