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Independiente vs Deportes Vallenar — Segunda División 2020

Independiente
Independiente
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Deportes Vallenar
Deportes Vallenar
11/15/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 11Estadio Fiscal de Talca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Independiente50%
×Draw26%
Deportes Vallenar24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente
1.50
Deportes Vallenar
0.96

Independiente creates 56% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 11 away

creates per match

Independiente
1.27
Deportes Vallenar
0.64

allows per match

Independiente
1.27
Deportes Vallenar
1.73

finishing

Independiente+0.00on par
Deportes Vallenar+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente ↓

Deportes Vallenar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Independiente or draw
76%
Independiente or Deportes Vallenar
74%
Draw or Deportes Vallenar
50%

Winning margin

Independiente wins by 2+
25%
Deportes Vallenar wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Independiente 1+ goals
78%
Independiente 2+ goals
44%
Independiente 3+ goals
19%
Deportes Vallenar 1+ goals
62%
Deportes Vallenar 2+ goals
25%
Deportes Vallenar 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Independiente (draw refunded)
67%
Deportes Vallenar (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.27 · 33 matches

Deportes Vallenar away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente attack 1.27 + Deportes Vallenar defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.50

Deportes Vallenar attack 0.64 + Independiente defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Independiente scores more
50%
level
26%
Deportes Vallenar scores more
24%

Independiente at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Independiente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Independiente vs Deportes Vallenar

Independiente beat Deportes Vallenar 2-1 in Segunda División on November 15, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Fiscal de Talca in Talca.