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Independiente vs Águila — Primera Division 2019

Independiente
Independiente
CANC
20:00
Águila
Águila
3/18/2020Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - 13Estadio Jiboa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Independiente30%
×Draw29%
Águila41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente
0.96
Águila
1.18

Águila creates 23% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 153 away

creates per match

Independiente
1.00
Águila
1.11

allows per match

Independiente
1.25
Águila
0.91

finishing

Independiente+0.00on par
Águila+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente ↓

Águila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Independiente or draw
59%
Independiente or Águila
71%
Draw or Águila
70%

Winning margin

Independiente wins by 2+
11%
Águila wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Independiente 1+ goals
62%
Independiente 2+ goals
25%
Independiente 3+ goals
7%
Águila 1+ goals
69%
Águila 2+ goals
33%
Águila 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Independiente (draw refunded)
42%
Águila (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

Águila away — creates 1.11, concedes 0.91 · 153 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente attack 1.00 + Águila defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.96

Águila attack 1.11 + Independiente defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Independiente scores more
30%
level
29%
Águila scores more
41%

Águila at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Águila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Independiente face Águila (Primera Division)

Primera Division returns with Independiente hosting Águila. Match starts March 18, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Independiente host Águila at Estadio Jiboa.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.