Independiente U20 2–3 Cerro Porteño U20

Independiente U20

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Cerro Porteño U20

3/3/2025

League #540 · Group Stage - 1Estadio Gunther Vogel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Independiente U2061%

×Draw21%

Cerro Porteño U2018%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente U20Expected goals in this matchCerro Porteño U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.04

Independiente U20

2.08

Cerro Porteño U20

1.04

Independiente U20 creates 100% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 3 away

2.17

creates per match

1.33

0.75

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Independiente U20

2.17

Cerro Porteño U20

1.33

allows per match

Independiente U20

0.75

Cerro Porteño U20

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente U20+0.00on par

Cerro Porteño U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente U20 ↓

Cerro Porteño U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Independiente U20 or draw

82%

Independiente U20 or Cerro Porteño U20

79%

Draw or Cerro Porteño U20

39%

Winning margin

Independiente U20 wins by 2+

38%

Cerro Porteño U20 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Independiente U20 1+ goals

87%

Independiente U20 2+ goals

61%

Independiente U20 3+ goals

34%

Cerro Porteño U20 1+ goals

65%

Cerro Porteño U20 2+ goals

28%

Cerro Porteño U20 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Independiente U20 (draw refunded)

77%

Cerro Porteño U20 (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente U20 at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

Cerro Porteño U20 away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente U20 attack 2.17 + Cerro Porteño U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.08

Cerro Porteño U20 attack 1.33 + Independiente U20 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Independiente U20 scores more

61%

level

21%

Cerro Porteño U20 scores more

18%

Independiente U20 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Independiente U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff