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Independiente Res. vs Central Córdoba SdE Res. — Reserve League 2022

Independiente Res.
Independiente Res.
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Central Córdoba SdE Res.
Central Córdoba SdE Res.
3/14/2022Reserve LeagueReserve League · 1st Phase - 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Independiente Res.51%
×Draw26%
Central Córdoba SdE Res.23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Res.
1.52
Central Córdoba SdE Res.
0.91

Independiente Res. creates 67% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 62 away

creates per match

Independiente Res.
1.54
Central Córdoba SdE Res.
0.68

allows per match

Independiente Res.
1.13
Central Córdoba SdE Res.
1.50

finishing

Independiente Res.+0.00on par
Central Córdoba SdE Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Res. ↓

Central Córdoba SdE Res. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Independiente Res. or draw
77%
Independiente Res. or Central Córdoba SdE Res.
74%
Draw or Central Córdoba SdE Res.
49%

Winning margin

Independiente Res. wins by 2+
26%
Central Córdoba SdE Res. wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Independiente Res. 1+ goals
78%
Independiente Res. 2+ goals
45%
Independiente Res. 3+ goals
20%
Central Córdoba SdE Res. 1+ goals
60%
Central Córdoba SdE Res. 2+ goals
23%
Central Córdoba SdE Res. 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Independiente Res. (draw refunded)
69%
Central Córdoba SdE Res. (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Res. at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.13 · 61 matches

Central Córdoba SdE Res. away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.50 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Res. attack 1.54 + Central Córdoba SdE Res. defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.52

Central Córdoba SdE Res. attack 0.68 + Independiente Res. defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Independiente Res. scores more
51%
level
26%
Central Córdoba SdE Res. scores more
23%

Independiente Res. at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Independiente Res. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Independiente Res. vs Central Córdoba SdE Res.

Central Córdoba SdE Res. beat Independiente Res. 1-0 in Reserve League on March 14, 2022.