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Independiente Petrolero vs Vaca Díez — Primera División 2019

Independiente Petrolero
Independiente Petrolero
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Vaca Díez
Vaca Díez
8/20/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 24Estadio Olímpico Patria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Independiente Petrolero60%
×Draw21%
Vaca Díez19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Petrolero
2.09
Vaca Díez
1.10

Independiente Petrolero creates 90% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 16 away

creates per match

Independiente Petrolero
1.75
Vaca Díez
1.00

allows per match

Independiente Petrolero
1.21
Vaca Díez
2.44

finishing

Independiente Petrolero+0.00on par
Vaca Díez+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Petrolero ↓

Vaca Díez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Independiente Petrolero or draw
81%
Independiente Petrolero or Vaca Díez
79%
Draw or Vaca Díez
40%

Winning margin

Independiente Petrolero wins by 2+
37%
Vaca Díez wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Independiente Petrolero 1+ goals
88%
Independiente Petrolero 2+ goals
62%
Independiente Petrolero 3+ goals
34%
Vaca Díez 1+ goals
67%
Vaca Díez 2+ goals
30%
Vaca Díez 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Independiente Petrolero (draw refunded)
76%
Vaca Díez (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Petrolero at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.21 · 91 matches

Vaca Díez away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Petrolero attack 1.75 + Vaca Díez defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.09

Vaca Díez attack 1.00 + Independiente Petrolero defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Independiente Petrolero scores more
60%
level
21%
Vaca Díez scores more
19%

Independiente Petrolero at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Independiente Petrolero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Independiente Petrolero 0–1 Vaca Díez

Vaca Díez beat Independiente Petrolero 1-0 in Primera División on August 20, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Patria in Sucre.